Zurich, January 15, 2015

L’abandon du taux plancher va laisser des traces dans l’économie suisse
15 Janvier 2015

Genève, BILAN du 15 Janvier 2015
PAR AWP  BANQUE NATIONALE SUISSE  – L’abandon du taux plancher par la Banque nationale suisse (BNS), annoncé jeudi, va laisser des traces dans l’économie helvétique notamment au niveau des exportations, selon UBS.

L’abandon du taux plancher par la Banque nationale suisse (BNS), annoncé jeudi, va laisser des traces dans l’économie helvétique notamment au niveau des exportations, a estimé l’économiste en chef d’UBS pour la Suisse, Daniel Kalt. La Confédération ne devrait cependant pas tomber en récession après cette décision, a-t-il indiqué à des journalistes.

« Les exportateurs suisses ont démontré ces quatre dernières années, qu’ils ont pu s’adapter à un franc plus fort face à l’euro », a dit M. Kalt. Les entreprises ayant principalement des clients dans la zone euro vont particulièrement souffrir du raffermissement du franc.

De fait, la devise suisse se raffermissait nettement après l’annonce de la BNS, autant face à l’euro (1,16083 EUR/CHF) qu’au dollar (0,89 USD/CHF).

« La BNS estime vraisemblablement que l’économie suisse sera en mesure de faire face à ce choc et estime très limité le risque de récession à court terme », a souligné l’économiste.

Avec cette décision surprise, la BNS a devancé la prochaine annonce par la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) d’un programme de relâchement quantitatif par le biais de rachats massifs d’obligations. Une telle mesure aurait « renforcé la pression sur la BNS » qui aurait encore dû augmenter son bilan pour défendre le franc, selon M. Kalt.

Quatre ans après l’introduction d’un taux de change plancher à 1,20 EUR/CHF, « l’Europe n’a toujours pas fait ses devoirs et n’a pas réglé le problème de la dette », a-t-il dit.

M. Kalt s’attend à devoir corriger en baisse ses prévisions de croissance. « Il y aura vraisemblablement un ralentissement, principalement chez les exportateurs ». UBS table jusqu’à présent sur une croissance de 1,6% en 2014 et de 1,4% en 2015.

Lire l’original de l’article:

http://www.bilan.ch/economie/labandon-taux-plancher-va-laisser-traces-leconomie-suisse

TORONTO, Janvier 14, 2015

La Banque mondiale a réduit mardi ses prévisions de croissance de l’économie mondiale en 2015 en raison d’une conjoncture afaiblie dans la zone euro, au Japon et sur certains marchés émergents.

Dans son dernier rapport semestriel, l’organisme dit s’attendre désormais à une croissance de 3% pour l’économie mondiale, contre 3,4% en juin dernier.

En 2016, le produit intérieur brut du monde devrait croître de 3,3%, ajoute la Banque mondiale, qui avait prédit dans son dernier rapport une croissance de 3,5%.

Ce pessimisme peut surprendre à l’heure où l’économie américaine redémarre et où les prix du pétrole baissent.

« L’économie mondiale est à un croisement déconcertant », a dit à la presse l’économiste en chef de la Banque mondiale, Kaushik Basu.

« Le moment est particulièrement difficile en ce qui concerne la prévision économique, » a-t-il ajouté. « L’économie mondiale est propulsée par un seul réacteur, le réacteur américain. Cela ne suffit pas pour dessiner pour le monde un avenir radieux ».

Source:

www.reuters.com

ZURICH, January 12, 2015

Progress in political transition will boost confidence, potentially lifting growth.

The true perspective of a new Tunisian government in the coming weeks gives positive signals for the sovereign’s credit profile drawn by Fitch Rating Agency. The electoral process has proceeded smoothly despite security risks, and electoral outcomes have increased the likelihood of the formation of a stable, coherent government.

The secretary-general of Nida Tounes, which won the most seats in October’s parliamentary elections, said last Monday that Habib Essid had been nominated as Tunisia’s new prime minister. The announcement follows the victory of Beji Caid Essebsi, also of Nida Tounes, in presidential elections held in late December. Habib Essid will now seek to form a coalition government and name a cabinet in the next month or so.

The formation of a new government following the autumn 2014 elections would consolidate Tunisia’s political transition, which began with the fall of the Ben Ali regime in 2011. The new parliament and president have been elected for five years accordingly to the new constitution, adopted by the previous parliament. Tunisia is on successful track to become the first Arab Spring country to complete a sound transition to democracy.

Nevertheless, the political landscape remains fragmented and social tensions are still at risk, due to the fact that no party won an outright parliamentary majority. The final timing and breadth of any coalition, including whether the second-largest parliamentary party, Ennadha, will participate, remains unclear.

Good perspective for stabilisation and capacity for compromise were well demonstrated last year in the adoption of the new constitution, the formation of an ad-interim government, the approval of the electoral law, and peaceful polling. Considering the mandate that victory in the parliamentary and presidential elections gives Nida Tounes, it is quite appropriate to suggests that a coalition might have good chances to be consistent and effective in policy-making. This would be in line with the Fitch longstanding view that political transition will ultimately succeed and a new government take power in early 2015.

Political tensions have taken a toll on policy-making and performance. The ad-interim government has progressed with pro-active reforms (e.g. further raising selected subsidised prices and strengthening tax administration), but key ones on banking sector restructuring and business environment improvement have yet to be finalised and implemented.

Reliance on official lenders including the IMF and World Bank should maintain the policy anchor. Fitch Ratings considers that the next government is likely to broadly comply with fiscal consolidation commitments made by the ad-interim government in its 2015 budget (Fitch Ratings forecasts the deficit to narrow to 4.9% of GDP this year, from 5.6% in 2014).

The authorities recently announced their intention to launch a bond issue in their own name, the first since the revolution, by end-January 2015 to finance budget needs. Progress in political transition will boost confidence, potentially lifting growth. Fiscal consolidation will slow expansion but lower oil prices, together with lower oil subsidies, will ease external and fiscal positions. This will help improve Tunisia’s twin deficits, but sustainably unwinding them will take time. An improved policy stance would therefore be key to a revision to Stable of the Negative Outlook on Tunisia’s ‘BB-‘ rating in 2015. The next scheduled review will be on 27 March.

Source: www.fitchratings.com

HELSINKI, January 8, 2015

The researchers studying the power of compassion have received a seven-figure sum in research funding from Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation.

The University of Helsinki project asks what compassion means in the everyday life of an organisation and in its interactions with partners, how is it generated, maintained and strengthened, and how can it improve profitability.

The CoPassion project is being launched at the beginning of January. Its goal is to help companies and communities recognise the potential in immaterial value creation which can be made into a competitive asset.

Anne Birgitta Pessi, professor of church and society, who runs the Revolutionary Power of Compassion program at the University of Helsinki emphasizes the power of the immaterial asset – the power of compassion.

The researcher are studying the impact of compassion exercises on different communities, in relation to innovations and creativity, employee engagement, workplace wellbeing, sales, customer experience as well as an atmosphere and culture of compassion and motivation.

The three-year project involves researchers and steering group members from the University of Helsinki, the Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm, Aalto University and the University of Jyväskylä. Other partners include an insurance company, art museum and television channel.

Source: www. unversity.helsinki.fi

HELSINKI, January 8, 2015

Finnish nuclear consortium Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) said Thursday it’s planning to cut up to 110 jobs, around 13% of its work force, to lower annual costs by 15 million euros ($17.7 million).

The company said the cuts are needed to compensate for the negative impact caused by low electricity prices in the Nordics and by delays in the construction of TVO’s third nuclear reactor at its production site in Olkiluoto on Finland’s west coast.

« Electricity market price has dropped and there are no signs of improvement in the coming foreseeable future, » TVO’s Chief Executive Jarmo Tanhua said in a statement.

The planned job and cost cuts come even though TVO reported earlier this month that Olkiluoto power plant produced more electricity during 2014 than in any other year in its 35-year-long history. The two-unit plant achieved a combined load factor of 96.0%.

Mr. Tanhua said that costs related to nuclear power production have increased while delays in construction of TVO’s third reactor, dubbed Olkiluoto 3, have caused « remarkable additional costs. »

Olkiluoto 3 was originally slated to start operations in 2009, but it is now expected to come online in late 2018. The reactor is being jointly built by the French nuclear giant Areva SA and the German engineering group Siemens AG.

TVO, Areva and Siemens are now in the midst of an arbitration proceeding over the financial losses caused by the delays at Olkiluoto 3.

According to the latest updated figures disclosed by TVO in November 2014, TVO is seeking EUR2.3 billion in financial compensation from Areva-Siemens, while Areva-Siemens’s claim against TVO now stands at EUR 3.4 billion.

TVO currently employs 840 people. The company said that operational personnel at its power plants and personnel authorized by the Finnish nuclear safety authority STUK are excluded from the planned lay-offs.

Finnish power utility Fortum Oyj owns 26.6% of TVO, and the Finnish paper and pulp maker UPM-Kymmene Oyj holds a major shareholding in TVO via another power utility called Pohjolan Voima Oy.

Source: Dow Jones News

Helsinki, January 5, 2015

Russia grants 150 billion roubles from its National Wealth Fund to gas company Novatek’s Yamal LNG project.

Among his last government decisions in 2014, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev approved Novatek’s application for state support to Yamal LNG developments. They were allocated 150 billion roubles (€ 2.1 billion) from the National Wealth Fund to the project.

The support will enable Novatek to continue its development of the Yamal LNG, a grand energy and infrastructure project on Russia’s Arctic Yamal Peninsula. Once on full awing, the Yamal LNG plant will have the capacity to produce around 16.5 million tons of LNG per year, all go it extracted at the nearby South Tambley field. The project also includes the development of the Sabetta port, a major infrastructure hub on eastern shore of the peninsula.

The 150 billion roubles are to be invested in the construction of LNG plant, as well as auxiliary production, processing and unloading facilities.

The Russian government has from before invested heavily in Yamal project. More than 47 billion roubles has been invested in the Sabetta port and auxiliary infrastructure.

The Sabetta harbor will be able to handle more than 30 million tons of goods per year and should operate all-year-round, despite the highly complex ice conditions of the Ob Bay.

There are other companies applying for state support as well. One of them is Rosneft. The bids for state support emerged as companies face major hardship following western sanctions and limited possibilities to get foreign credits.

The National Wealth Fund is one of the two state investment funds, both of them established in 2008. The National Welfare Fund was initially given $87.97 billion. The fund is controlled by the Minitry of finance and one of its main responsibilities is to support the Russian pension system.

Novatek is the Russia’s biggest independent gas producer, partly controlled by structures associated with businessmen Gennady Timchenko and Leonid Mikhelson, two businessmen with good relations with Kremlin.

NOVATEK started in August 1994, when AOOT FIK Novafininvest was established (the name was changed to OAO NOVATEK later). The new Company focused on oil and gas assets development from the very beginning.Novatek acquired the exploration and production licenses in the YNAO (East-Tarkosalinskoye, Khancheyskoye and Yurkharovskoye fields) and made significant investments in the fields development and surface facilities construction. The trial operation of the East-Tarkosalinskoye oil field commenced in 1996 and commercial production of natural gas started in 1998. Gas marketing development commenced in 2002 with first natural gas sales to end-customers.

The company completed the consolidation of NOVATEK’s main assets in 2004 and disposed the non-core businesses – in 2005 in order to focus on its core assets.

The Purosky Condensate Processing Plant was commissioned the same year becoming the most important element of the vertically integrated production chain of the Company and the Company’s IPO was conducted on the London stock exchange and Russia’s MICEX stock exchange.

With over 25 bcm production per annum NOVATEK was the largest independent producer in Russia as earlier as 2005 and retained its market position afterwards. The Company’s production volumes and asset portfolio grew rapidly in the subsequent years. NOVATEK acquired stakes in SeverEnergia, Nortgas and Yamal LNG, as well as new licenses including prospective areas in the Gydan Peninsula and the Gulf of Ob.NOVATEK launched a large-scale project on LNG plant construction (Yamal LNG) which will enable the Company to enter the international gas market.

Source:

http://government.ru/dep_news/16397/

http://www.novatek.ru/en/